So far 2024 has proven to be a stable property market with house prices remaining at their current level for the first half of the year with no house price falls. Now that we have entered the second half of the year we are starting see house prices slightly rise. no sign of decline and a of the second half of the year we the uncertainty in the property market is still apparent.

The Bank of England have kept the base rate at 5.25% since August 2023. It appears that the government have now got inflation under control and there is optimism that the base rate will be lowered in the near term. In anticipation of rates coming down, during July some lenders have already started to lower their rates with Nationwide being the first lender to offer a mortgage product product with an interest rate of less than 4%. If mortgage rates fall it will make buying a house more accessible for many, in theory this should get the property market moving faster and add a boost the stagnant property market that we are currently experiencing.

Certain costs for homeowners may still hold the market back, inflation at the shops and higher energy bills have caused a cost of living crisis. In May Inflation fell to the Governments target of 2%, this has held steady and remains at 2% for inflation figures reported in June. This has given lenders further confirmation that interest rates won’t be going up and should surely come down in the near future. As to date the positive news about the rate of inflation has not transferred to consumers spending more at the shops as recently reported by Barclays. Household bills have risen such as council tax rising 5% and mobile phone bills rising 8% resulting in consumers having less money to spend in the shops.

What Are the Current House Price Figures?

In the UK there are various different sources that analyse the market and produce average house price figures with differing results so here’s a look at what each index has reported:

Halifax

The Halifax House Price Index reported in June shows that house prices slightly fell by 0.2%.  According to Halifax the average house price now stands at £288,455. Halifax reported a yearly high of 291,338 in February and since then the national house price ahs remained at this current £288,000 level for the past 4 months. It is important to note that Halifax’s analysis is based on the values of mortgage applications. The Halifax national house price chart can be seen below:

Halifax House Price Index June 2024

Nationwide

The Nationwide House Price index for April shows a monthly increase of 0.2% and a year on year increase of 1.5%. Nationwide economist Robert Gardner as stated that house prices have modestly risen due to a normal seasonal rise. It has been a modestly flat year and transactions are down 15% since 2019. The increased costs of borrowing via a mortgage has taken a negative effect with house purchases using a mortgage down almost 25%. The report for June 2024 shows that the national house price is £266,064.

Nationwide House Price Index June 2024

Zoopla

Similar to Rightmove, Zoopla record advertised “For Sale” prices so they are always more optimistic than Land Registry results and prices that are reported by mortgage lenders. Zoopla are reporting that house prices have remained flat at 0.0% since the same time last year, this is an improvement form last month when Zoopla said that house prices had slightly fallen by 0.1% since the same time last year. According to Zoopla the average house price currently stands at £264,000 as of May. Interestingly, Flats have experienced the most house price growth with an increase of 1.10%.

Zoopla Key Points June 2024

Rightmove

House Prices on Rightmove are based on asking prices and the UK average now stands at £373,493, a decline of £1617 from the figures reported previously. However, it should be noted that Rightmove did recently report a new record high national house price for the UK back in May.. The full report for July can be seen here.

Office of National Statistics

The Office of National Statistics now reports data in a report that is called Private Rent and House Prices. The data for July shows that over the past year the national house price has increased 2.2% and now stands at £285,000. This figure is based on sold prices recorded at The Land Registry and is a few months old, up to May 2024.

Should You Buy a House in 2024 or Wait?

This general consensus from analysts is that house prices will moderately fall during 2024. This should be taken with caution, dramatic predictions of house prices falling between 5% and 10% during 2023 didn’t materialise and house prices are now higher than they were before. Therefore, these predictions of doom and gloom for the housing market during 2024 could also be wrong.

It’s understandable why analysts still have a negative outlook. Interest rates have not fallen and there is still a cost of living crisis, where household bills and expenditure have been pushed up by the inflation that we have experienced in the past year. However, the housing market has remained resilient and in our opinion prices have already bottomed out during January 2024. Furthermore, if interest rates do fall and mortgage rates become lower and buying a house becomes more affordable, then many more buyers will enter the market and push prices up.

Here are some of the the predictions of how far house prices could rise or fall during 2024:

House Prices May Continue to Fall But Then Rise Due Inflation

It should also be noted that the value of the pound has now changed, prices at the shops have increased by around 25% since April 2022, at some point in time house prices should rise partly due to the new lower worth of the pound.

At some point in the future there will be a recovery and you would expect a rise in house prices that will be associated with the rise that we have seen with the prices of our goods, bills and increased wages.