So far 2024 has proven to be a upward trending property market with house prices remaining higher than the start of the year. During August there was a fall of 1.5% in the national house price but this has been viewed as a seasonal fall which was expected as we have seen the same level of decline for the past 18 years. Now that we are approaching the final quarter of the year it is predicted that the property market may be even more buoyant with more properties coming onto the market and more buyers.

The Bank of England have lowered the base rate by 0.25% to 5%. In anticipation of rates coming down, during July some lenders had already started to lower their rates. Natwest, now offer the cheapest mortgage rate of 3.77% on a 60% LTV and it is expected that more lenders will lower their rates during September. If mortgage rates continue to fall it will make buying a house more accessible for many, in theory this should get the property market moving faster.

Certain costs for homeowners may still hold the market back, inflation at the shops and higher energy bills have caused a cost of living crisis. Inflation is now at 3.1% for July this is significantly lower than the peak of 9.6% that was seen in 2022. The lower rate of inflation has now transferred into more consumer spending at the shops with August having the first positive month of growth since March with an increase in consumer spending of 1%. As to date the positive news about the rate of inflation has not transferred to consumers spending more at the shops as recently reported by Barclays. Household bills have risen such as council tax rising 5% and mobile phone bills rising 8% resulting in consumers having less money to spend in the shops.

What Are the Current House Price Figures?

In the UK there are various different sources that analyse the market and produce average house price figures with differing results so here’s a look at what each index has reported:

Halifax

The Halifax House Price Index reported in July shows that house prices by 0.8%.  According to Halifax the average house price now stands at £291,268. This is only slightly lower than the yearly high that Halifax reported 291,338 in February. The Halifax national house price can seen in the chart below:

Halifax House Price Index July 2024

Nationwide

The Nationwide House Price index for August shows a monthly decrease of 0.2% and a year on year increase of 2.4%. The commentary has attributed the monthly decline to a typical seasonal fall and points towards the positive news of a higher yearly figure. The report for August 2024 shows that the national house price is £265,375.

Nationwide August House Price Index Table

Zoopla

Similar to Rightmove, Zoopla record advertised “For Sale” prices so they are always more optimistic than Land Registry results and prices that are reported by mortgage lenders. Zoopla are reporting that house prices are currently 0.5% higher than the same time last year, this is an improvement form last month when Zoopla said that house prices remained flat. According to Zoopla the average house price currently stands at £265,400 as of May. Interestingly, Terraced Houses have experienced the most house price growth with an increase of 1.1%.

Zoopla House Price Chart August

Rightmove

House Prices on Rightmove are based on asking prices and the UK average now stands at £367,785, a decline of £5708 from the figures reported previously. This may seem like an alarming fall but it is as expected and in line with a historical fall in house prices that we have seen for the past 18 years. However, it should be noted that Rightmove did recently report a new record high national house price for the UK back in May. The full report for August can be seen here.

Office of National Statistics

The Office of National Statistics now reports data in a report that is called Private Rent and House Prices. The data for August shows that over the past year the national house price has increased 2.7% and now stands at £288,000. 

Should You Buy a House in 2024 or Wait?

This general consensus from analysts is that house prices will moderately fall during 2024. This should be taken with caution, dramatic predictions of house prices falling between 5% and 10% during 2023 didn’t materialise and house prices are now higher than they were before. Therefore, these predictions of doom and gloom for the housing market during 2024 could also be wrong.

It’s understandable why analysts still have a negative outlook. Interest rates have not fallen and there is still a cost of living crisis, where household bills and expenditure have been pushed up by the inflation that we have experienced in the past year. However, the housing market has remained resilient and in our opinion prices have already bottomed out during January 2024. Furthermore, if interest rates do fall and mortgage rates become lower and buying a house becomes more affordable, then many more buyers will enter the market and push prices up.

Here are some of the the predictions of how far house prices could rise or fall during 2024:

Inflation at the Shops May Cause House Prices to Rise

It should also be noted that the value of the pound has now changed, prices at the shops have increased by around 25% since April 2022, at some point in time house prices should rise partly due to the new lower worth of the pound.

At some point in the future there will be a recovery and you would expect a rise in house prices that will be associated with the rise that we have seen with the prices of our goods, bills and increased wages.